Apr 192006

A fabulous, clear page from David Sifry on the growth of the blogosphere as at April 2006. His exec summary:

In summary:

  • The blogosphere is doubling in size every 6 months
  • It is now over 60 times bigger than it was 3 years ago
  • On average, a new weblog is created every second of every day
  • 19.4 million bloggers (55%) are still posting 3 months after their blogs are created
  • Technorati tracks about 1.2 Million new blog posts each day, about 50,000 per hour

I like the phrase 50,000 per hour, suddenly quantity measurement turns into speed – but I digress. Here shamelessly is the chart that most astounds me from his posting (note this is an image link not a copy locally onto my server – David will understand)

David Sifry Weblog Growth

The other chart that fascinates me is the peak chart on his page. It certainly shows the psychographic, gadget/nerd make-up of the audience (hence ‘boing boing’ being top dog most of the time) when iPod video and intel mac announcments get more daily posting peaks than Live8, Indian Tsunami and Superbowl.
I am trying to work out where this is heading. It is curving upward in true exponential fashion. Does this mean everyone on the planet will have their own online journal in a few years? Will the tools become so commonplace that we have it built into every device, speech to text, or even every device has an IP address that can be accessed from anywhere. If you allow it your digital video camera has a ‘allow/disallow’ function. In WiMax zones around the world your content can be picked up from anywhere else. Why bother publishing it when the raw content can be perused. Perhaps intelligent edit algorithms built into ‘capture’ devices simply make just the good bits accessible. A world of every device IP connected. Bits of peoples lives captured transparently in fragments across this sea of devices. Agents piece together stories, mashing together these fragments (with user consent) to be shared, instantaneously globally. Anyway that’s to come – for the moment here am I typing text into wordpress, movabletype, blogger etc: It’s easier than it was – but my word is it going to get easier!

Posted by Gary Hayes ©2006

Nov 232005

Personalization, on-the-move. Reported by a few blogs and spotted by New Scientist it looks like the race has begun for location aware profiling – TiVo have put in a patent for “a mobile personalization system“. The patent synopsis

A multimedia mobile personalization system provides a remote control that detects a user’s electronic tag, e.g. an RFID tag. The remote control notifies a multimedia device of the user’s identity. The multimedia devices tailors it operations to the user’s preferences stored locally. Multimedia content such as broadcast or recorded television programs, music play lists, and the like could be sorted, displayed, or restricted, depending on the user identifier.

This is long overdue especially as TV-Anytime which I co-led (and who had TiVo in its ranks for a few years) talked about the importance of mobile profiles in its phase two work – why expect a hundred systems to learn your likes and dislikes when you could do it once and have compatibility. Indeed I wrote several articles and papers on it over the last 5 years, one here. But as in other very recent TiVo developments its TiVoToGo software (report by StarTribune) aimed at video iPod and PSP has got the backs up of the TV industry. Variety in it’s article “Peeved over TiVo” reports that TiVo who already has upset the TV industry for many years with their ad skipping capability have now upset them again because they are allowing viewers to easily capture TV programmes and get them mobile! Especially after the $1.99 per programme business model which looked set to start TV down a new road…

The pioneer of the digital video recording bizbiz called the move an “enhancement” of its TiVoToGo service, which allows users to transfer recorded shows to a PC. The new software, which will be released early next year, allows users to transfer these files to a portable player.
“We’re making it easy for consumers to enjoy the TV shows they want to watch right from their iPod or PSP,” said TiVo CEO and former NBC exec Tom Rogers. (snip)
The immediate impact of the service, which will be offered soon after the new year, would be to undercut ABC’s video-on-demand offering, through which users can buy episodes of “Lost” and other shows for $1.99 each to view on PCs or video iPods.
NBC and CBS recently began offering skeins on-demand for 99¢ through DirecTV and Comcast, respectively.

The boat is not yet tipped over but TiVo, Google and others are severly rocking it at the moment. Another article trying to capture the storms hitting the ‘video/tv’ industry at the moment is also captured in business week’s report End of TV article. Just like good journalism that thrives on good gossip generated by its TV stars on the way and then can’t wait to trash them to generate more readership, so TV seems to be the star at the moment. Everyone wants to toll it’s final bell, or at least be the first to suggest TV is over. I think just those who said film and radio was going to die in the late 40s, or how in early 2000’s VOD will kill off DVD film there may be some egg on faces. I for one suggest TV will simply evolve, become video delivered in a multitude of ways. TV will not die, simply the word we currently use for video delivered in a most inefficient way – schedule broadcast.

Posted by Gary Hayes ©2005

Oct 022005

One of those knew it was happening moments suddenly brought into clear focus by an amazingly clear image. From a great Wall St. Journal report Old Media In a New World a few months ago – Will let this Nielsen graph (which you may have seen) speak for itself – quite staggering decline.

©Wall St Journal

From the article:

Never has the advertising industry — whose best-known product remains the 30-second TV commercial — faced such wide-ranging threats. Ad-skipping devices, including TiVo Inc.’s digital video recorder, continue to penetrate U.S. homes. The spread of portable electronic devices means the average couch potato can consume media on the go — without ads. New programming venues such as broadband entertainment online and video on demand will only make it more difficult to catch consumers with traditional ads. Meanwhile, marketers have become more demanding, asking for better proof that the billions of dollars they sink into advertising actually pay off.

If the commercial channels and ad distributors know this why oh why are they not moving quicker – they still have the powerbase to place their roots in new ground – or is that ground constantly on the move. We are in an earthquake, shifting sands zone methinks. But even with that uncertainty advertisers really need to understand more than ever now the advantages of good cross media campaigns. It is their only salvation – a bridging mechanism before totally new advertising models (more on that very soon!) emerge as the new broadband distribution channels mature.

Posted by Gary Hayes ©2005